When you see a bear it’s too late to run away. Take advantage of the next market crash.
The Stock Market is a powerful money-making machine that can make you rich and financially independent.
Stock Market Crashes are part of the game.
The next one may be around the corner.
But when you see a Grizzly Bear it’s too late to run away. It swims, climbs trees and runs at 50 km/h. Potential Bear encounters need to be prepared for.
The same applies to Bear Markets. Except Stock Market Crashes are guaranteed to happen.
I divided the topic into three sections.
Here is what I will cover.
KEY TAKEAWAYS
- Larry and RC have collected 77 investing mistakes that investors commonly fall prey to. Each mistake and the evidence behind it is briefly presented in its own chapter, sometimes using personal stories, along with tips on how to avoid it.
- Even though chapters are relatively short, they are informationally very dense. An effective way for readers to digest the material is to focus on one mistake per day to let the material sink in.
- The mistakes can also be used as prompts for interesting finance-related discussions amongst families, friends, or investing groups.
- There are four parts in this book dealing with mistakes that fall into the same broad theme, which we briefly summarize below.
- This book does not put a particular focus on personal finance, but touches upon how to think about the opportunity cost of spending, how to think about withdrawal rates in retirement, and the importance of saving money early to let compounding work its magic.
Here is the full analysis
Part 1 - How Much Can I Lose? How Long Will it Last?
Let’s face it, in theory, you can lose all your money in a Stock Market Crash.
There have been instances in history when some investors lost all their savings.
What’s poorly understood is that in reality, it’s almost impossible to lose money in the long term.
How long will the downturn last?
It can be quick. In the US the quickest crash was a 23% loss for the Dow Jones Index in just one day.
More often it will take a year or two.
Part 2 - Can I do something to Prepare for a Market Crash?
Not being invested is not a solution.
A too conservative portfolio can hurt you as much as taking too much risk.
Remember, if an extreme event strikes all markets at the same time, you will have other things to worry about than checking your brokerage account.
For most scenarios, if you review lessons from previous market crashes you will understand that there are powerful weapons at your disposal to mitigate downside risk.
Without requiring technical knowledge.
Preparing for a crash includes diversifying and getting international exposure.
But most importantly, protecting yourself from your own emotional decisions with e.g. Bonds and Inflation Hedges.
Part 3 - How to act during the next Market Crash to benefit from it?
Once a crash materializes there are a certain number of behaviours that will help you.
Cost Averaging with additional injections trumps any crisis (yes, Japanese style crisis, too!).
Rebalancing will help buy cheaper Equities, especially if you cannot inject additional savings because you have lost your job.
Finally, you can adjust your lifestyle.
Now let’s dive deeper into stock market crashes and learn how to take calculated risk.
PART 1 - How Much can I Lose? How Long will it Last?
How do people lose money in the Stock Market?
Being Unprepared in the Wrong Place...
During some of the most spectacular market crashes investors lost all their money – circumstances have been quite extreme in most cases: wars, revolutions, changes in political regimes – all seemingly remote in today’s developed markets.
A lot of others were restricted to very specific countries – unlucky were those that didn’t hear about international diversification, or didn’t have access to other markets.
Select spectacular market crashes over the last 100+ years
... At the Wrong Time
In any conversation about long term investing the Great Depression or Japan’s Lost Decades will come up.
Below are a few facts you need to know.
I also describe what would have worked in the past.
The goal is not to forecast how the next downturn will look like but be robust to most scenarios.
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The Three Grizzlies - Lessons from Painful Downturns
Crashes brought opportunities
This guide is not meant to be exhaustive but gives you the possible profiles of recoveries.
Why did I select those events?
It largely boils down to answering the questions:
- How do I prepare for the unpredictable?
- What is in my control to take advantage of a recession or a market crash?
With that in mind, I listed best practices to help you construct a portfolio.
The Mainland Grizzly - The Great Depression in the US
Grizzly (aka Brown) Bears are particularly dangerous if you are unprepared.
The worst thing you can do is to run away. Some preparation includes having a bear spray, staying calm and knowing how to gently talk a bear out of charging you (yes, I’m serious).
One of the most traumatic bear markets happened in the 1930s.
Below is the drawdown profile on $1,000 invested at the peak of the market in 1929.
It is adjusted for deflation (and then inflation) with reinvested dividends.
Great Depression (Loss from Market Peak on $1,000)
It took 7 years to break even from the 1929 crash and less than 5 from the trough in 1932.
The NYT suggested the pain wasn’t long – 25 Years to Bounce Back? Try 4½.
The reality is more subtle since there have been another few years of negative returns that followed.
In fact, it was very much a black swan series of events with Great Depression followed by World War II.
What was the lesson from the crisis?
Holding Bonds.
The initial deflation has made Bonds attractive and reduced real losses on Stocks.
The Kodiak Grizzly - 1970's Inflation Shock
Kodiak Island in Alaska is known for being inhabited by some of the biggest bears on earth.
But hardly anyone talks about them.
The 1970’s Bear Market is not an event most people talk about.
The Great Depression and the below Japanese lost decade are discussed when people talk about their Early retirement strategies relying on the Stock Market.
But in my opinion, the 1970s was perhaps the most dangerous for an unprepared investor.
Below are the inflation and dividend-adjusted drawdowns for UK Investors who invested 100% in Domestic Equities at the peak of the market.
Inflation Shock in the UK (Loss from Market Peak on £1,000)
During the 1970s, the real price of imported oil in the U.S. and much of Western Europe increased 6-fold.
Initially, stocks were hit the hardest declining up to 50% within 18 months in the US.
UK Stocks dropped 73%.
By 1981 as inflation accelerated US Treasuries declined by up to 40%.
Yes, Equity and Bonds that are usually negatively correlated both declined.
At the same time.
What was the main lesson from this crisis?
The Hokkaido Grizzly (ヒグマ) - Lost Decade in Japan
If you ever go to Japan, don’t miss out on Hokkaido – Shiretoko National Park (知床国立公園) and Shakotan Peninsula (積丹半島) are my personal favourites.
Shiretoko is also the most densely populated area by Brown Bears in the world. Yes, this even includes Alaska and Canada’s Yukon Territory.
But it’s a highly localised threat.
Similar to being fully invested in a single country.
You would be hard-pressed to find somebody who hasn’t at least heard of Japan’s Lost Decades.
It’s a popular topic people raise as soon as early retirement and living off an investment portfolio comes up in a conversation.
Below is the decades-long drawdown adjusted for dividends and periods of deflation (mainly) and some inflation in between (overall averaged a 0.5% annual inflation since 1989) from the perspective of a Japanese Investor with a 100% Domestic Equities portfolio.
Japan's Lost Decade (Loss from Market Peak on ¥1,000)
What was the main lesson from this crisis?
Implementing International diversification.
This is by far the hottest topic with regards to Long Term Investing (and it shouldn’t be – look at the 70s above).
That’s why I have expanded on it in the section below about how to prepare for such a crisis since the portfolio consequences of this crisis were actually (in retrospect) one of the easiest to avoid.
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Who Are Coaching Sessions For?
- Beginners often ask us: How do I reach my goals? When should I invest? How do I come up with the right asset allocation? What About Short-Term Investing?
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Don’t take our word for it. Check the reviews to see what other investors think.
Black Bears - "V-shaped" Market Crash Opportunities
Relative to Grizzlies, Black Bears are less dangerous.
They charge only when they have no other alternatives. Or when defending cubs.
Black Bears can easily be confused with Grizzly Bears because it’s not the colour that defines them.
An easy way to spot the difference is the shape of their ears. They have pointed ears, while Grizzlies have rounded ones.
Markets can be more tricky.
A Black Bear is the perfect immediate buying opportunity. A Grizzly can be a bit more challenging to navigate.
And you initially can’t tell the difference.
1987 Flash Crash (Loss from Market Peak on $1,000)
In the Flash Crash in 1987 the S&P 500 (adjusted for dividends) finished the year flat despite the worst one-day performance of the Index.
In October, on Black Monday the Dow Jones lost c. 23% and S&P 500 just over 20%.
The above graph shows the drawdown from the market peak but doesn’t consider the prior rally.
The recovery represented positive returns when you take January 1987 as a starting point.
COVID-19 Sell-Off (Loss from Market Peak on $1,000)
We are yet to see the full extent of the COVID-19 damage on the Economy but as of August 2020, the S&P 500 has recovered all its losses.
Possible lessons
The rise of algorithmic trading may amplify certain future crashes and may make them shorter.
Central Banks’ proactive stance and strong market demand may possibly make some recoveries shorter.
Or at least that’s what market participants tend to believe. Be cautious.
Part 2 - Can I do something to Prepare for a Market Crash?
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How do I prepare for the unpredictable?
You shouldn’t try to predict outcomes. I fundamentally believe most people waste their time trying.
Rather, it is to learn from the past to build the most robust portfolio to withstand most scenarios.
Here are the common errors investors made in the past decades and major lessons we have learned from past bear markets.
Market Crash Portfolio Protection in 3 Steps
Invest Internationally
Buy Bonds
Get Inflation Protection
Invest Internationally
Buy Bonds
Get Inflation Protection
Why you need International Diversification
International Diversification may have been a lifesaver at some point if you were based in any country outside the US.
Or there have been lots of cases where damage could have been limited by international diversification. Asian crisis, the 1970s, dot Com crisis or the Great Financial Crisis are just some examples.
For US Investors it was a return enhancing tool during some periods. Yes, World Equity Markets tend to become even more correlated and International Markets see more outflows during crashes providing a case of investing in the US.
But ultimately history may prove it to be a risk tool even for them.
Now have a look of what happened to the relative share of each market over the past 120 years.
Are you willing to restrict yourself to one market? Relative performance (by size) of Equity Markets from 1900 to 2020
A no-brainer
A Japanese investor in the 1980s must have been thinking “The Japanese stock market has been a rather better investment for many years now. It is reasonable to eliminate the rest of the developed world and the US from my portfolio since it’s a drag on the performance”. No wonder;
- Japanese Market represented a higher capitalization than the US Market
- In fact, by investing 1,000 ¥ in 1970 your portfolio would have gone up x17 to 17,000 ¥ by the end of the 1980s if you held an equivalent of the Japanese Nikkei vs only x4 from $1,000 to c. $4,000 if you held the S&P 500. And that’s not even taking into account that the USD lost 60% relative to the Yen.
"The Japanese stock market has been a better investment for many years now. It is reasonable to eliminate the rest of the developed world and the US from my portfolio since it's a drag on the performance"
Below is an example of how keeping the S&P 500 and European Equities would have looked like a major drag on portfolio performance for the Japanese in the 1980s.
Japanese vs. US Equities in the '70s and '80s
….and now if we zoom out
Japanese vs. US Equities since the '90s
There are practical ways of choosing the right ETF to cover world markets if you want to read further.
BOOK SUGGESTION
bubble in six countries
In their fascinating Book “Manias, panics, and crashes – a history of financial crises” Charles Kindleberger and Robert Aliber describe an extraordinary time when Japan and Scandinavian countries experienced their largest asset bubbles at the same time.
Asset price bubbles in major industrial countries are rare; the previous bubble in the United States had been in the late 1920s.
Japan had never had an asset price bubble before and neither had any of the Asian countries.
There were more asset price bubbles between 1980 and 2000 than in any earlier period. Japan experienced the ‘mother of all asset price bubbles’ in the second half of the 1980s.
Real estate prices increased by a factor of nine, stock prices increased by a factor of six.
The Japanese economy boomed.
Finland, Norway, and Sweden also experienced bubbles in their real estate markets and their stock markets at this same time. Other Asian markets followed.
A bubble in six or eight countries at the same time is an extraordinary phenomenon; nothing like it had ever happened before.
The 1980s real estate bubble in Japan was so massive that by the end of the decade the chatter in Tokyo was that the market value of the land under the Imperial Palace was greater than the market value of all of the real estate in California.
The land area in California is several billion times larger than the grounds of the Imperial Palace, which meant that there was an enormous difference in the price per acre or hectare.
All of the financial values in Tokyo were sky-high at the end of the 1980s.
The market value of Japanese stocks was higher than the market value of U.S. stocks, even though Japanese GDP was less than half of U.S. GDP.
The comparison between Japanese and U.S. firms in terms of the ratios of the market value of stocks to profitability was even more skewed.
The market value of Japanese real estate was twice the market value of U.S. real estate, even though the land area in Japan is 5 per cent that in the United States and 80 per cent of Japan is mountainous
Market Crash Portfolio Protection in 3 Steps
Invest Internationally
Buy Bonds
Get Inflation Protection
Invest Internationally
Buy Bonds
Get Inflation Protection
Why you need Bonds
Remember those drawdown charts at the top of this guide?
It won’t be half as bad if you get a reasonable amount of Bonds that will protect your portfolio from your worst enemy – your emotions.
A lot of analysts and some of the smartest retail investors claim that you need to stay the course by injecting more savings in tough times.
I think that they are living in a fantasy world.
Let’s face it.
What’s the likelihood you would have additional savings to inject during a Great Depression?
There would be more vital needs. It’s one of those periods where not only your neighbour loses a job. You do too.
In the first few months, the COVID-19 crisis was not dissimilar in that regard.
Without Central Bank support it would have had devastating consequences.
You may not always be able to stay the course and inject savings
However, if you already had Bonds then at least you could re-balance in such scenarios and buy cheap stocks benefiting from the market crash.
Alternatively, if you really need cash you can withdraw it from your Bond allocation (albeit you will increase your risk profile) to avoid selling Equities at the worst possible moment.
Bonds also protect you in all deflationary scenarios – during the Great Depression (1928 -1940) the cumulative real total return of 10-yr Treasury Bonds was 100%.
You can also use my Bond ETF calculator to understand how Bonds increase in price during a crisis and how to adjust duration to limit losses in a rising interest rates environment.
Market Crash Portfolio Protection in 3 Steps
Invest Internationally
Buy Bonds
Get Inflation Protection
Invest Internationally
Buy Bonds
Get Inflation Protection
Why you need Inflation Protection
You may think the following example is extreme. And I tend to agree. German bonds from WWI lost 95% of their value relative to cash in the year or so after Germany surrendered.
Despite earning more than a 900% excess return since then, investors never recovered their wealth – this may be a very specific black swan event.
By looking at the 1970s and developed markets this scenario while being remote can’t be totally excluded.
Oil and food shocks boosted inflation and by end of the 1970s, bond yields had increased to double-digit levels.
Investors not only earned negative real income returns but also suffered punishing capital losses. No wonder a bond came to be considered an unmentionable four letter word and bond investors came to believe they had in effect been slaughtered.
You could ride it out given the Equities tend to exceed inflation in the (very) long run.
But what exactly is the long run for you and are you sure to be immune during a full decade?
Inflation Protection benefits (Loss on $1000 from Market Peak)
Inflation-Linked Bonds were not available back in the 1970s. But another Inflation Protection instrument that works in (very high) Inflation scenarios is Gold.
I don’t have high-quality Bond Data for the UK for this period but US markets reacted in the same way (albeit not as bad as the UK). I looked at the S&P 500 and Long Term Treasuries.
The Red surface is the drawdown profile on a 60% Equity / 40% Bonds Portfolio.
The Yellow one is 60% Equity / 20% Bonds + 20% Gold.
Rebalancing (see section below) also plays a role here.
I have assumed it’s done annually, so you effectively sold expensive Gold and bought Equities during that period.
If we take the 1970-1986 period the annual return adjusted for inflation was 5% for the Portfolio with Gold vs. 2.3% without it.
If interested, read more on how to protect your portfolio from Inflation.
Part 3 - How to act during the next Market Crash?
How do I take advantage of a Market Crash?
There are certain key behaviours to implement during market crashes.
Even if you get the timing completely wrong.
Investing regularly (if you have the ability, which most of us should if we control expenses) will trump any crisis.
Assuming you reinvest dividends and rebalance you will end up buying the Stock market at a discount.
To remain robust in the worst times create flexibility with side revenue sources or options to reduce spending.
Think also about reducing taxes when you incur losses loss harvest.
Take advantage of a Market Crash in 3 Steps
Keep investing
Re-balance !
Create Flexibility
Keep investing
Re-balance !
Create Flexibility
Buy the dip
Most people would still have their jobs (and the ability to invest) in a typical bear market
But what if I get the timing wrong?
Look, the above worst-case drawdown charts are assuming you invest at the worst possible moment.
And you invest all of it in one go.
In reality, rarely anyone invests lump sums.
But what would happen if you did just that?
In 2014 Ben Carlson wrote a piece about the worst market timer named Bob.
Bob was a diligent saver who started working at 22. His commitment was to save 2k/year through the 70s, 4k/year through the 80s, 6k/year through the 90s, then 8k/year until retirement.
He started out by saving $2,000 a year in his bank account until he had $6,000 to invest by the end of 1972.
The market dropped nearly 50% in 1973-74 so Bob basically put his money in at the peak of the market right before a crash.
Yet he did have one saving grace. Once he was in the market, he never sold his fund shares.
He held on for dear life because he was too nervous about being wrong on both his sell decisions too.
Bob didn’t feel comfortable about investing again until August of 1987 after another huge bull market. After 15 years of saving he had $46,000 to put to work.
Again he put it in an S&P 500 index fund and again he invested at a market peak just before a crash.
The final investment was made in October of 2007 when he invested $64,000 which he had been saving since 2000.
He rounded out his string of horrific market timing calls by buying right before another 50%+ crash from the credit blow-up.
Luckily, while Bob couldn’t time his buys, he never sold out of the market even once.
He didn’t sell after the bear market of 1973-74 or the Black Monday in 1987 or the technology bust in 2000 or the financial crisis of 2007-09.
He never sold a single share.
Bob, US' Worst Market timer is close to being a millionaire (after inflation)
Now that you’ve read about Bob you may ask how did he do?
Even though he only bought at the very top of the market, Bob still ended up a millionaire.
After a net contribution of $184,000 his portfolio is worth $1.8m before inflation and $800,000 after adjusting for inflation.
(The Video total contribution is $128k and differs from Ben's first analysis - conclusions are the same!)
Kumiko (久美子) - Japan's Worst Market Timer
If you thought Bob was unlucky consider Kumiko.
Kumiko is Japan’s worst market timer.
She invests in Yen but I kept same the amounts to make her case easier to compare with Bob.
She invested the same amount of money over time as Bob, but she lives in Hakodate, on the Japanese island of Hokkaido.
Yes, that same island I mentioned earlier with the highest concentration of Grizzly Bears in the World.
Not only did she miss the greatest bull market ever but also didn’t compound interest over the first 20 years when Bob had already skin in the game.
So she decided to deploy 20 years of hard-earned savings in 1989 at the peak of the mother of all bubbles.
She thought she’s seen it all when her savings plunged c. 70% by 1998 (dividends offset some losses) so she prepared for another injection of her savings.
The rally until March 2000 comforted her that the time was right and she invested another 60,000 at the peak of the dot com bubble.
Similar to Bob she didn’t have much luck in 2007 either when she deployed another 64,000.
Kumiko's (久美子) portfolio value after Japan's lost decade(s), dot com and GFC Crashes
Kumiko (久美子) realized, too late, that Japan's relative stock market size was a historical aberration
Kumiko invested at the worst of all possible times in the worst market and she had only 30 years of compounded returns compared to 50 for Bob.
How did she do?
Well, Kumiko is not a millionaire yet but she’s considering adding some bonds/inflation protection and investing overseas from now on.
Her portfolio is now worth 265,000 after contributing 184,000.
After inflation, the value is just over 230,000.
Maybe not that bad for the worst timing ever.
Reinvest dividends
The benefits of reinvesting dividends are propelled by simple math.
Both new capital injections (like Bob’s or Kumiko’s) and reinvesting dividends work the same way.
Take advantage of a Market Crash in 3 Steps
Keep investing
Re-balance !
Create Flexibility
Keep investing
Re-balance !
Create Flexibility
Re-balance your portfolio
This aspect necessitates a dedicated guide to portfolio re-balancing but the idea boils down to intelligent timing of your trades.
For example, say an original target asset allocation was 50% stocks and 50% bonds.
If the stocks performed well during the period, it could have increased the stock weighting in the portfolio to 70%.
The investor then sells some stocks and buys bonds to get the portfolio back to the original target allocation of 50/50.
The key is that it gives you a sense of control.
Investing on Autopilot
Buy low, sell high.
It’s purely rule-based. It does not require any arbitrary decision from your side.
Essentially, you are reaping the benefits of the portfolio preparation for a crisis that I explained earlier by having Bonds and Inflation Protection, which increase in value depending on the type of crisis we are going through.
And you benefit from it at the best time.
When Equities are cheap.
Take advantage of a Market Crash in 3 Steps
Keep investing
Re-balance !
Create Flexibility
Keep investing
Re-balance!
Create Flexibility and optimize
Create flexibility and use tax-loss harvesting
This analysis focuses on long term investing but ignores any withdrawals which merits another analysis and de-risking of your portfolio before retirement.
The single most important factor in building wealth is regular investing.
To allow for that spending reduction flexibility and/or additional income that can be used for investment is paramount.
Of course, selling individual loss-taking positions in taxable accounts (aka tax-loss harvesting) can help reducing your tax bill.
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CONCLUSIONS
Be Cautiously Optimistic
It’s one of those phrases that we Bankers use a lot.
Why?
Because it’s saying something without really saying anything.
However, in this case, it’s a good way of defining things. You need to look at the bigger picture.
Stocks go up in the long run. But also hedge your downside. Hence, be cautious.
Or rather prepared.
In the end, markets bounce back, and the worst declines revert.
Assuming you’re broadly diversified e.g. a Dow Jones 30 Index with only 30 stocks won’t cut it!
If your portfolio is set up for these periods will feel more like an opportunity cost on other things you could do with your money rather than real losses.
It’s a choice you need to make – do you have ideas to develop a business or invest in real estate and actively manage it?
These may prove superior to Stocks.
But I am yet to find out a better way of getting passive income than investing in the Stock Market. A powerful money-making machine.
Oh, and visit bear countries. Hokkaido, Alaska and Yukon are some of the most magnificent places I’ve seen!
Happy Investing and keep’em* rolling !
(* Wheels & Dividends)
REFERENCES
- Kindleberger, RZ Aliber , ‘Manias, panics and crashes: a history of financial crises’ (2011), Google Books
- Donald Bernhardt and Marshall Eckblad ‘Stock Market Crash of 1987’ (November 2013), Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
- Melissa Saphier, Karen Karniol-Tambour, Pat Margolis, ‘Geographic Diversification Can Be a Lifesaver, Yet Most Portfolios Are Highly Geographically Concentrated’ (February 2019), Bridgewater Associates
- Elroy Dimson, Paul Marsh, and Mike Staunton, ‘Triumph of the Optimists: 101 Years of Global Investment Returns’ (2002), Princeton University Press
- CS, ‘Summary Edition Credit Suisse Global Investment Returns Yearbook 2020’ (February 2020), Credit Suisse
- Mark Hulbert, ’25 Years to Bounce Back? Try 4½’, (April 2009), New York Times
- Ben Carlson, ‘What if you only invested at Market Peaks?’ (February 2014), A Wealth of Common Sense
- Anupam Dutta, ‘COVID-19 and oil market crash: Revisiting the safe haven property of gold and Bitcoin’ (November 2020), ScienceDirect
- Juan C.Reboredo ‘Gold can act as an effective safe haven against extreme oil price movements’ (February 2016), ScienceDirect
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