Updated 4% Rule (The Sunday Ride #5)

The Sunday Ride #5 - UPDATED 4% RULE

The Sunday Ride brings a collection of Investment Research and Financial Independence topics for Long Term Investors with the aim of providing you the very best reads.

To be enjoyed with your Sunday post-ride coffee.

While rebalancing your portfolio, learn how the markets work and get the highest quality insights from Wall Street and Main Street.

Unlike the rest of Bankeronwheels.com, this series is provided without much additional guidance. 

As usual, everything is to be used at your own risk. 

Market Dashboard

DASHBOARD - STATE OF PLAY

A quick glance at where we stand Year-to-Date when you rebalance. Compiled specifically taking a Long Term Investor view. Updated throughout the year. Long term historical risk and returns are here

CURRENCY-ADJUSTED 2021 Performance

Realised Inflation has never been so high with Interest Rates so low.

Although I find Michael Batnick’s analysis somewhat misleading given he compares realised (over past year) inflation to forward interest rates (kind of comparing apples to oranges), but it’s worth highlighting nevertheless what exceptional year it has been and how low rates are.

Inflation Expectations stay within 2.5-3.5% 15-year range

Source: JP Morgan

 

The forward looking inflation hasn’t moved much over the past month (see my table above) while the interest rates dropped again – I look at you (again) hedge funds shorting Treasuries!

That said, returns (S&P 500) over the past decade or so, are nothing short of extraordinary:

2009: +25.6%

2010: +14.8%

2011: +2.1%

2012: +15.9%

2013: +32.2%

2014: +13.5%

2015: +1.4%

2016: +11.8%

2017: +21.6%

2018: -4.2%

2019: +31.2%

2020: +18.0%

2021: +18.4%

Is it as good as it gets? Asks Ben Carlson.

β - THE LONG GAME

This section is dedicated to research on what really matters (aka the 90% of your Portfolio) – achieving Financial Independence, Asset Allocation and Long Term Investing Research.

 

Vanguard writes about fine-tuning the 4% FIRE Rule, including (i) International diversification (ii) considering longer horizon, and (iii) thinking about fees.

The FT describes MSCI’s quest for the ultimate Index.

Credit Suisse released the annual Wealth Report – Your portfolio is probably a reflexion of the global trend. Total global wealth grew by 7.4% and wealth per adult rose by 6% to reach another record high of USD 79,952.

Overall, the countries most affected by the pandemic have not fared worse in terms of wealth creation. But some countries were worse off.

BoW updated analysis on Bond ETFs may be helpful for those looking to buy US ETFs. There is only a handful of ETFs with a yield above Inflation.

Vanguard also analyzed investor expectations during the COVID crash.

In a similar vain, few tricks on how to lose at investing by The Undercover Fund Manager.

JP Morgan released it’s quarterly Guide to Markets.

This year has been extremely smooth, akin to the 90s.

2021 - A very smooth ride so far

Source: JP Morgan
Alpha Investing

α - PUNT RESPONSIBLY

If you decide to sin, then sin only a little. Active investing should be, at best, a tiny fraction of your portfolio (I tend not to exceed 10% of my portfolio). This section is dedicated research related to improving your knowledge about capital markets. 

 

US vs. Non-US Developed Markets cycles

Source: JP Morgan

US Markets continue to outperfom other developed markets. But also EM.

If someone advises you to put 30-40% of your portfolio in Emerging Markets be cautious.

Market allocations should be your starting point.

Here’s Ray Dalio‘s take on the recent Market Moves related to Chinese Stocks.

Emerging Markets Indices are dominated by China

Source: JP Morgan

Crypto

Over the past weeks, I have explored Crypto beyond Bitcoin.

Some thoughts will come in the  next months, but one thing is certain.

The space is infested with scammers.

Here’s Bloomberg’s take on this issue.

Active Investing - Orbituary

When you play with fire, you can get burned. This section is a stark reminder of what can happen when engaging in active investing, even as a professional.

xxx

 

European Stuff

EUROPEAN STUFF

This section is dedicated to UK and European Index Investing. It can also touch on other jurisdictions outside the Euro-zone.

If you aren’t an Interactive Brokers client you wouldn’t have received an email saying that, effective July 1, 2021, clients will no longer be charged USD 10 for not maintaining a minimum balance or transaction activity.

This is great news for long term investors since it remains one of most advanced retail brokers on the market. 

Interactive Brokers is also publically listed and rated, as  described in a BoW article about Broker safety.

Cycling

LIFESTYLE

This section is dedicated to the FIRE Lifestyle Movement and Cycling Topics (bikepacking, touring and useful reviews)

Financial Independence & Early Retirement

Do bookmark the above video link. It is a guided meditation for when the Stock Market will crash, by JL Colins.

As you may know, this blog is mainly about wealth-creation and not so much FIRE-centric. 

Since the beginning I have had some doubts about the movement, even though most of its principles are sound.

Some of my observations are shared by Our Next Life claiming it’s time to retire FIRE.

FIRE is often a team ‘game’. And this can have lots of implications. The Indeedably shares his thoughts.

When building wealth the first million is just a start. And it can get tough to switch careers in your 40s if you haven’t planned for it. 

It may help to start diversifiying early, for example venturing into Real Estate, writes BoF.

Cycling - RIDE MOROCCO

If you are looking for an exotic cycling destination, Morocco could tick a lot of boxes.

I have spent 18 months in this country and written about some of the highlights you can expect. 

Ale from CyclingAbout has done a great analysis (video below) of what I witnessed during my travels.

Extra kilos don’t matter that much.

I find that good tires are more important (rolling resistance) and aero resistance is key too (switching to bikepacking setup in developed countries).

If you aren’t conviced by cycling yet, consider an e-bike. Here are some advantages by Financial Panther

 

You can't buy happiness but you can buy a bike and that's pretty close!

- Unknown

Good Luck & keep’em* rolling!

(* Wheels & Dividends)

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All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and do not constitute financial advice. Consider the appropriateness of the information having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs, and seek professional advice where appropriate. Read our full terms and conditions.

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About Raph Antoine 83 Articles
Raph Antoine is a Portfolio Manager and Institutional Advisor that witnessed first-hand the 2008 Global Financial Crisis and the 2011 European Debt Crisis working for some of the most prestigious names in the financial industry. Raph has experience across multiple asset classes including Fixed Income and Equity products as well as Special Situations and Restructurings in multiple jurisdictions. Raph holds an MSc in Financial Engineering and is a CFA (Chartered Financial Analyst) Charterholder. He usually rides one of his two bikes. Rarely, a Canyon Ultimate CF SLX 8.0 (that is currently in family's attic) and most of the time a Gravel Pinnacle Arkose (his favourite) that he used to Cycle the World.
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Patrick
Patrick
5 months ago

Thank you so much for Vanguard’s update of the 4% rule.
I do like your approach and have shared this with my friends.
Best!