Weekend Reading – The Price of Peace & Goldman Sachs Guide to Bear Markets

Weekend Reading is a collection of Investment Research and Lifestyle topics from all corners of the Web. We source the highest quality insights from Wall Street and Main Street that you may apply to your investment process. Unlike the rest of Bankeronwheels.com, this series is provided without additional guidance. As usual, everything is to be used at your own risk. Below is the type of content we shortlist:

The pessimist complains about the wind; the optimist expects it to change; the realist adjusts the sails.
William Arthur Ward
Featured
Everyone has an idea about how the stock market works, yet bond markets are widely misunderstood. Retail investors often label them as ‘uninteresting’—to put it mildly. However, bonds play an important role in the overall success of your investment strategy. In 2025, not only do they offer a juicy yield, but they may also act as a powerful weapon in your portfolio. Today, let’s explore a simplified Bond ETF calculator to get an intuitive sense of the upside and downside of Bond ETFs, and why keeping cash may not always be preferable.
Portfolio Construction
Asset Allocation
What is the single most universally held belief in all of investing? Think about it for a minute. Our vote would be “Investors MUST own US stocks.” It has been well established that US stocks have historically outperformed bonds over time, and likewise, US stocks have outperformed most foreign stock markets as well as other asset classes. How many times have you seen a version of this chart?
Understand Financial Markets
The United States owes foreign investors $8.5 trillion of its national debt—almost one-quarter of its total debt. The graphic above illustrates the foreign holders of U.S. national debt using data from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, as of December 2024. The U.S. debt increases when the government spends more than it collects in taxes and other revenue. To cover this shortfall, the U.S. Treasury issues Treasury bills, notes, and bonds. These securities are highly liquid, widely used by central banks as reserves, and favored by investors during market volatility.
Most equities have entered, or are on the cusp of, a bear market. Not all bear markets are the same. The type of bear market has some bearing on the triggers, timing and speed of the recovery. Our framework identifies 3 types: 'Structural' bear markets, 'Cyclical' bear markets and 'Event-driven' bear markets. Cyclical bear markets are the most common, with falls averaging 30%. Bear market rallies are common, but a sustained trough typically requires a combination of cheap valuations, extreme negative positioning, policy intervention and a slowing of macro deterioration.
How To Invest
Active Investing
Factor Investing
Liquid alternatives are sold as strategies that improve portfolio diversification, especially when traditional stock and bond markets tank. Have they passed the test that markets have posed this year? Liquid alternatives are one option for enhancing diversification. These mutual funds and exchange-traded funds offer exposure to strategies like long-short equity, merger arbitrage, and trend-following.
- Holy Grail and trend-following (mrzepczynski)
- Understanding What Drives Momentum in Global Stock Markets (Alpha Architect)
- Intrinsic Value: A Solution to the Declining Performance of Value Strategies (Tandfo online)
- Small Caps, Big Opportunities: Investing Beyond Large-Cap Stocks (Research Affiliates)
What do Wall Street quants actually do? (Good Work)
The math nerds have taken over Wall Street. Why? How? And by god what does it mean? Dan Toomey is the only mortal capable of answering such questions. Suck it 60 Minutes. Featuring interviews with Gregory Zuckerman (WSJ investigative reporter and author of The Man Who Solved the Market), Inti Mantripp (former quant analyst at Bank of America), and a couple of anonymous hosses who have worked in ~the elite quant space~.
Discretionary Investing
- Do Options-Based Strategies Capture Market Gains Without The Risk? (Peter Lazaroff)
- EM sovereign bond allocation with macro risk premium scores (Macro synergy)
- Equity Risk Premiums (ERP): Determinants, Estimation, and Implications (SSRN)
- Tech Dilution: Stabilization on Large; Divergence at the Margin (Platform Aeronaut)
- Choosing to Lose: Country Misallocation in Discretionary EM Investing (Acadian)
Alternative Asset Classes
The firm's annual Market Overview is a comprehensive, data-driven review and analysis of private markets investment activity over the prior year, as well as predictions for the year ahead. The detailed report leverages Hamilton Lane's industry-leading database that encompasses data on more than 58,000 funds across 57 vintage years*. Among the report's findings: Credit, infrastructure and secondaries: Each of these sectors is set up for success. Venture and growth: Investors should have exposure to these areas. Equity: In particular, the co-investment side where investors can be selective.
- Tokenization of the market, from stocks to bonds to real estate is coming (CNBC)
- Can Private Markets Be the Alternative to Lofty Public Market Valuations? (Apollo)
- Hedge funds still aren’t worth the money (Joachim Klement)
- Private Equity and Private Debt: Two Sides of the Same Coin (CFA Institute)
- Enhancing portfolio resilience: Alternative assets, risk premia, and tail-risk hedging (Franklin Templeton)
- Big Funds, Small Gains: Rethinking the Endowment Playbook (CFA Institute)
Wall Street
Top Asset Management Giants in 2024! 💼💰 Here’s the ranking of the world’s top 10 asset management firms by AUM (Assets Under Management) in 2024: 1️⃣ BlackRock: $10.47T 🇺🇸 2️⃣ Vanguard: $9.30T 🇺🇸 3️⃣ Fidelity: $5.30T 🇺🇸 4️⃣ State Street: $3.63T 🇺🇸 5️⃣ Morgan Stanley: $3.56T 🇺🇸 6️⃣ JPMorgan Chase: $3.34T 🇺🇸 7️⃣ Crédit Agricole: $2.86T 🇫🇷 8️⃣ Goldman Sachs: $2.85T 🇺🇸 9️⃣ UBS: $2.62T 🇨🇭 🔟 Capital Group: $2.60T 🇺🇸
Bad Bets
ETFs
UCITS ETFs
This article is Part 6 of our Definitive Guide to Slashing ETF Costs and Taxes. One of the most confusing aspects of UCITS ETFs is currencies. Pay special attention. Not only can they affect the long term performance of the Stocks and Bonds, but they also impact the FX conversion fees you pay your Broker. Today, let’s look at the best practices and what you can do to reduce FX fees.
US ETFs
Wealth Management
Personal Finance
Platforms
Imagine discovering your broker has gone belly-up overnight, leaving your hard-earned investments in the balance. In a market where investors tirelessly chase after low fees, the often-ignored specter of broker failure lurks in the shadows. The collapse of a broker isn’t just a plot twist in a Hollywood blockbuster—it’s a stark reality that has left many investors stranded and panicking. Could your broker be next? What safeguards do you have in place? Here is what you need to know to protect your savings.
(Early) Retirement
Zach Lytle, 26, worked as a software engineer for three years before quitting in April 2024 to hike the Pacific Crest Trail, a more than 2,600-mile trail that spans from Mexico to Canada. Lytle isn't alone. Many Gen Zers and millennials are taking career breaks despite having relatively short careers. On social media, influencers have coined these breaks "micro-retirements" or "mini-retirements". So why have some embraced this trend, and is it right for you?
Design Your Lifestyle
Personal Development
Careers & Entrepreneurship
In 2024, the average hourly labour costs in the whole economy were estimated to be €33.5 in the EU and €37.3 in the euro area.
The lowest hourly labour costs recorded in: - Bulgaria (€10.6) - Romania (€12.5) - Hungary (€14.1)
The highest in: - Luxembourg (€55.2) - Denmark (€50.1) - Belgium (€48.2)
Travel
Tech & Economy
Economy
Can Poland Save Europe? (Economics Explained)
While Europe struggles with debt and stagnation, Poland is booming—the fastest-growing major economy on the continent! How did Poland transform from a broken USSR satellite into a tech and military powerhouse? We explore its smart moves—slow privatization, EU funds, innovation—and risks like debt and brain drain. Can it overtake Germany or France?
Tech & Science
- As AI Takes His Readers, A Leading History Publisher Wonders What’s Next (bigtechnology)
- ChatGPT and Deepseek: Can They Predict the Stock Market and Macroeconomy? (Cornell University)
- The World’s Most Visited Websites by Time Spent Per Visit (Visual Capitalist)
- Agentic AI – The Autonomous Edge (Citigroup)
And Finally
Good Luck and Keep’em* Rolling!
(* Wheels & Dividends)

Weekend Reading – Vanguard 10-Year Forecasts For Equities and Bonds & IBKR Borrowing Rates Compared

Interactive Brokers Fixed vs Tiered Plan – Which Is The Best For ETFs?

Weekend Reading – Best Bond ETFs After the Largest Selloff in Modern History & BoW TOP 10 Reads in 2025

Bond ETFs in 2026: Expected Returns After the Biggest Selloff in Modern History

Our Unmissable TOP 10 in 2025 – Did You Catch Them All?
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